***UPDATE*** September 19th, 2022, 22:00JST
Typhoon Nanmadol hit Kyushu ferociously, but it has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression/or Tropical Cyclone and is not longer a Typhoon, basically it stalled. Currently, we are now seeing “linearrainbands form in Kyushu and throughout South Japan, this system consists of rows of Cumulonimbus clouds, and these systems can be hundreds of km long and often cause torrential rainfall, high winds, thunderstorms and sometimes tornados. This system could spread from Kyushu to North Japan. In Niigata we should be hit by the tropical depression/storm starting about 03:00 JST and lasting till about noon September 20, 2022. I can only hope the linearrainbands with Cumulonimbus clouds fade fast in Kyushu and there is minimal downpours and little damage, and I hope they do not make an appearance in our region. But if they do, they may only produce some lightning storms out to sea, with low winds I could get some fantastic lighting shots? Wishful & hopeful Thinking! Namaste, Blain in Japan🇯🇵
Super Typhoon Nanmadol is the 14th of the 2022 Typhoon Season and is about to slam into Kyushu, Japan. If Super Typhoon Nanmadol keeps its strength up, it will be the 5th largest typhoon on record to slam into Kyushu, Japan. This super typhoon’s projected path has it moving across almost the entire Japan mainland archipelago which is a little too perfect, and will most likely not occur. What will most likely happen, is this super typhoon may stall overland, and then continue to move at a turtle’s pace, turning into a tropical depression with torrential downpours, similar to Super Typhoon Hagibis in 2019, which caused hundreds of trillions of Japanese yen in damages, and fruit farmers and others in Nagano and across Japan are still recovering to this day. The people most effected by these super typhoons are those residing where the typhoons first hit land, and those living in low lying lands that are prone to flooding, plus those who live in mudslide hazard zones. At this point, I can only pray Super Typhoon Nanmadol will cut across Japan quickly, as predicted by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and into the Pacific Ocean and stay there and burn out of steam fast. But there are only a couple of points a typhoon can successfully zigzag and cross the (High Alpine Mountains) successfully between the sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean side of Japan, and that path is either through Nagano, Niigata, or Yamagata, into Fukushima or Sendai. We will know the storm’s path by the middle of next week. Another possibility, but with a small percentage, is Super Typhoon Nanmadol will continue along the Sea of Japan and rip across coastal hamlets, villages, and cities along to Hokkaido. But this is unlikely, as the typhoon will most likely attempt to cross from the Sea of Japan into the Pacific Ocean side of Japan.
This is not my first super typhoon, this is 10th if you count hurricanes. I strategically purchase property that is naturally fortified, and our 100 year old kominka (古民家) in Niigata, reaps the benefits of what is known as "the Sado Island effect." In winter, snow flies right over us and lands 10 km inland, and when typhoons hit Sado Island which lies 32 km out to sea directly in front of our hamlet, Sado Island takes the brunt of the storm. Also, our local beach is growing, not eroding, and this is also due to the "Sado Island effect." And I take extra precautions, food, supplies, fuel, water about enough to last a month. Also, I never read the newspaper weather, or listen to radio or tv weather reports. Daily, I read weather charts, in order to know well in advance what to bring along on my family or business outings, or if we need to do some shopping and bunker down for a few days. And this is a practice I do extra-diligently when leading any Japan photography workshop tours. This reminds me of when Super Typhoon Etau slammed into the Kanto region of Japan in September 2015 while I was leading my annual Nikko photo workshop tour. I often look back at these times and share my stories in the hope it will educate tourists, fellow adventurers, and locals on safety protocols when time is sensitive on an impending possible natural disaster. Sadly, most do not practice the due diligence required to keep themselves or their participants safe, and they rely on hotel staff. Wow? Hotel staff? Or they rely on run of the mill tour guides, or, even worse, they listen to regular TV or radio announcers who are hundreds of kms away in Tokyo. If I need advice, I proceed to the closest emergency services center, fire hall, or police station.
On that fateful 2015 morning in Nikko, I woke up to birds chirping and beautiful skies at our lodgings, about 90 minutes before breakfast at our accommodations. I quickly checked the Japan Meteorological Agency, and I saw Super Typhoon Etau was headed straight for us, and this super typhoon was packing a punch that was going to hit us in about 9 - 12 hours. I knew there was nothing to do at this point, so after luxuriating in my morning onsen ritual, clients were sitting enjoying breakfast, and I sat down to join in on the morning meal. Then, the hotel owner came rushing in panicked to alert us of the incoming typhoon and the magnitude of the situation and told us we couldn't stay that night. He reported that we had to evacuate his lodgings and leave Nikko immediately. We finished breakfast at 0800, and the owner asked us to leave quickly; I asked him where he was getting his evacuation information from? He said from the radio and tv and how all "tourists were leaving Nikko in hordes.” That was the moment when I knew he had no idea about evacuation protocols. I know the local roads and highways, and I knew there was already a 50 km traffic jam heading into Tokyo. I told my clients we would check out at 10 am, and I advised clients to go and enjoy the onsen, and a few clients and I did.
After checking out, I drove the lead SUV to the main fire hall, and everything was suspiciously still. As an ex-rescue specialist, I was a little shocked not to see rescuers milling about getting ready for armageddon. My team and I got out of our vehicles, and we talked to the fire/rescue chief head of Nikko's FDMA, Fire, and Disaster Management Agency and his team. I asked, "So, what do you recommend we do?" They were overwhelmed and more than helpful because someone had the good sense to ask about the correct course of action. The chief showed me the weather charts and the course of the super typhoon approaching. We could see that there was only a small window of time to get from Nikko to Tokyo before people would be stranded in transit. The highways were soon to be clogged with hundreds of thousands of tourists who were all going in the wrong direction. The aerial photo below shows only one small section of highway in the region where the river water had overflowed the roads, making them impassible. In fact, there were now 10 km lakes in many areas where there hadn't been any before. Over 50% of those who had fled Nikko in the morning were stranded in vehicles; the lucky ones were stranded at roadside rest stops. It took three days for the waters to recede, and the rest stops were not sufficiently equipped to handle such an influx of people, so sewers became quickly backed up, and there was no power or running water. The stranded tourists were not even able to pump gas into their cars to run their air conditioning in the hot and humid summer weather. Helicopters flew in supplies and portable toilets to address the mounting problem. Emergency services helicopters plucked stranded residents from roofs after waters surged over a wide area when the raging Kinugawa river burst its banks in Joso, north of Tokyo, swamping the city of 65,000 people and cutting off the highways, see image below.
Rewind three days, I took the fire chiefs advice and checked into another lodging in Nikko, and we weathered the storm comfortably. The next day the storm was still raging but we went out to photograph, and in all my years visiting and photographing in Nikko for UNESCO I have never seen Nikko so empty, it was like a ghost town. Then in the afternoon the storm cleared, we had blue skies. We spend another night in Nikko, then the next day we departed and drove though the mountain ranges to visit with the snow monkeys. Meanwhile on the highways to Tokyo tourists who foolishly evacuated Nikko, including run of the mill guided tours, with licensed tour guides were still stranded for another day.
As a final word of caution, if you want to take a Japan photography workshop tour safely, or any photo tour worldwide, make sure you travel with an experienced adventurer who has an entire team and is a local to the region or has scouted the area for at least three to five years and not three to five days. Your leader should understand the region's topography weather patterns for the four seasons and know emergency evacuation procedures, and be prepared for anything that could happen to make your trip carefree.